![]() In a systematic review of research assessing populations affected by SLR, we identify 46 studies that meet our search criteria (See Supplementary Material). Such spatio-temporal differences in assessments of populations affected highlight some of the limitations of singular, or limited, spatial zones for adaptation planning. Yet each individual spatial zone overlooks the spatio-temporal continuity of SLR impacts on a coastal landscape. coastal erosion 13, coastal flooding 14, and saltwater intrusion 15). Regular daily to annual tidal flooding (e.g., nuisance flooding) events are likely to be the most disruptive to life in the near term 8, and related impacts are already occurring in many parts of the world (e.g. However, permanent inundation is not the most immediate impact of SLR. These temporal horizons can be forecast from as short as 100 years 11 to as long as 2000 years or longer 6, 12, pushing SLR impacts deep into the future. The modeling choices around spatial zone of population affected by SLR imply a temporal horizon for when impacts will unfold. However, we recognize that in some cases for these zones, we are discussing areas that are representative of “spatio-temporal zones” such as the 100-year flood plain, which while explicitly spatial, is dependent upon the temporal notion of a 1% chance of flooding in any given year. For simplicity, we use the term “spatial zone” throughout the paper to describe inland areas relative to the coastline. Examining the contribution of different datasets and methods to wide-ranging estimates of SLR exposure is beyond the scope of this paper. A third major consideration is the deployment of different datasets and methods to calculate exposure. These wide-ranging estimates can be attributed to several considerations, including: (1) differing spatial zones of “at-risk” that influence estimates of how many people will be affected by SLR, and (2) differing temporal horizons implied by any given spatial zone that affect estimates of when increased flooding and associated impacts due to SLR will occur. At the global level, the population estimated to be affected by SLR ranges from a low of 88 million 10 to a high of 1.4 billion 5. However, the magnitude of the population estimated to be affected ranges widely across studies. Intense interest in this topic is due to the magnitude and severity of SLR flooding as a climate impact, the clear potential implications for human migration 9, the growing size of global coastal populations 5, the relative simplicity of producing estimates 3, and the increasing availability of both geophysical and population data products from local to global scales 7. Scientific assessments estimating the populations affected by SLR date back at least four decades and are relatively common in the scientific literature. The human population is concentrated in the low-elevation coastal zone (LECZ those <10 m above sea level) with more than 600 million people living in the LECZ globally 7, and despite the increasing rate of SLR related flooding 8, the global LECZ population is growing: more than 1 billion are forecast to live in the coastal zone by 2060 5. Research has long sought to identify the impact of SLR on coastal areas 2– 4, with an increasing focus on estimating exposed populations and associated assets 2, 5, 6. Avoiding adverse consequences depends on our ability to undertake accurate assessments of the populations already affected, and those projected to be affected, to inform adaptation planning and the ability to adapt to such consequences 1. Sea-level rise (SLR) accompanying climate change will cause significant and costly impacts in the 21st century and beyond. ![]()
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